TURKISH MIGRATION FROM ISTANBUL STARTS FEAR OF EARTHQUAKE

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Revised May, 2024 – Resource, Turkey iResidence
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THE PROVINCES THAT RECEIVE THE MOST MIGRATION FROM ISTANBUL ARE ESKIŞEHIR, SAMSUN AND SAKARYA

The outputs of the migration movement in Istanbul after the earthquake were shared. The report compares the first 30 days after the earthquake with the same period of 2022. According to this, Eskişehir was at the beginning of the cities where Istanbulites wanted to move the most, while Samsun and Sakarya followed the ranking.

The demographic structure of Istanbul, the megacity where 20 percent of the Turkish population lives, is changing. While the increasing rents make it difficult to live in the city every day, Istanbulites who faced the fear of an earthquake tiny shake again on February 6 found the solution by migrating to other provinces. Eskişehir is the city that Istanbulites who migrate mainly to Central Anatolia, Thrace, Central and Eastern Black Sea cities want to move to the most, followed by Samsun and Sakarya provinces.

After the Kahramanmaraş based earthquakes that took place in February, the reverse migration movement began in Istanbul. Istanbul, which has been receiving intensive migration since the 1980s and is home to about 20 percent of the Turkish population, is now positioned as an immigration province. The report prepared by Municipality which offers a new generation turnkey transportation service, issued a report card of migration movements in Istanbul after the earthquakes.

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THERE HAS BEEN A BIG CHANGE IN RELOCATION REQUESTS AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE

A report by examining relocation requests after the Kahramanmaraş based earthquakes, February March 2023 requests are compared with the same period of 2022 the report said – within the scope of the report, it was observed that the requests originating from Istanbul were collected in four regions. Stating that these regions are Central Anatolia, Black Sea, Thrace and Mediterranean respectively, as of February 6, there have been big changes in relocation requests after the earthquakes. In the week following the earthquake, the demand for relocation decreased sharply to a ratio of 4 to 1, and then there was a rapid increase. According to the report in which we examined the relocation requests from Istanbul after the earthquakes, we can say that Istanbul has no longer become a migration destination, but a migration destination city. Among the main reasons for this are the fear caused by the possible Istanbul earthquake and the fact that rents have reached high prices.

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DEMAND FOR SAKARYA HAS INCREASED BY 8 TIMES

Recently, with the rapid increase in housing prices in Istanbul, an intensive migration movement towards Thrace had begun. With the earthquake, this migration accelerated and expanded its borders. We see that there has been an intensive migration to cities such as Edirne, Tekirdağ, Çanakkale, Sakarya, Eskişehir, Kayseri and Samsun compared to last year. The factors that make these cities stand out are that the earthquake risk is low, and housing and land prices are at a more affordable level. The demand for moving to these provinces increased by an average of 3 times compared to the same period last year. Even Sakarya, by receiving 8 times more requests, has become by far the most desirable city to move to in the entire Marmara Region. Çanakkale 5, Edirne, Tekirdağ and Bursa received 2 times more requests.

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THE MOST MOVED CITIES IN CENTRAL ANATOLIA ARE KAYSERI AND ESKIŞEHIR

When we look at the Central Anatolia Region, we see that especially large cities received an average of 8 times more relocation requests compared to the same months of last year,

Kayseri, Eskişehir and Ankara, which are among the cities where industrialization is high, have ranked high among the cities where they want to move. The demand for Konya, another major city in the region, did not show any significant changes. While Eskişehir is in demand 18 times more than last year, there is a 7-fold increase in Kayseri and a 4-fold increase in Ankara.

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ONE OF THE CITIES THAT MOST WANTED TO MOVE TO WAS SAMSUN

Samsun, one of the most desirable cities to move, has received a 16-fold relocation request, while this rate has been recorded as 6 times in Ordu, 4 times in Giresun and 3 times in Trabzon. With an average growth of 3 times among the 4 regions that received intensive demand for moving from Istanbul, the demands for moving to the Mediterranean, which is the lowest region, increased by 4 times to Antalya and by 2 times to Mersin. In addition, there is a sharp decrease in demand for cities such as Izmir and Kocaeli.

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THE COMMON FEATURE OF THE CITIES RECEIVING MIGRATION IS THAT THE EARTHQUAKE RISK IS LOW

When we examined the four prominent regions, namely Thrace, Central Anatolia, the Middle-Eastern Black Sea and the Mediterranean, one of the common features in migrated cities is that the risk of earthquakes is low, housing and land prices follow a low course compared to Istanbul.

In the emerging picture, the current influx of reverse migration is not a surprise for Istanbul, which has received intensive migration from the Samsun – Trabzon line in the past. On the other hand, Eskişehir, where industrialization is intense in the Central Anatolia Region, and Sakarya in the Marmara Region are also very attractive with these qualities.

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